Daniel's General Election Predictions

For the first time since my wife started this blog I am going to post on here. Every general election I enjoy giving my predictions as to what will happen. I do not pretend to be a "political expert" nor would I ever claim to know for certain what the outcome will be as some pundits would. However, for the last year I have carefully researched the polls and trends of each state. In 2004 I achieved something that I will probably never match; in predicted all 50 states correctly.

My predictions are based upon the following information: Recent poll data, individual poll accuracy in past elections, state election trends, momentum trends, early voting, and even the weather outlook for Tuesday. I will state the candidate that I believe will win the given state followed by a confidence percentage. This is not the margin of victory, but merely states my prediction for how close a state will be. For example: I believe Obama will win Wisconsin with 85% confidence. This means that I think there is a 85% chance that Obama wins the state and DOES NOT mean that I think Obama will win 85% of the vote.

STATE(E.V.) -- Winning Candidate -- Confidence %
Alabama (9) **McCain** 100%
Alaska (3) **McCain** 100%
Arizona (10) **McCain** 75%
Arkansas (6) **McCain** 85%
California (55) **Obama** 95%
Colorado (9) **Obama** 65%
Connecticut (7) **Obama** 100%
Delaware (3) **Obama** 100%
Dis. of Col. (3) **Obama** 100%
Florida (27) **McCain** 55%
Georgia (15) **McCain** 75%
Hawaii (4) **Obama** 95%
Idaho (4) **McCain** 100%
Illinois (21) **Obama** 100%
Indiana (11) **McCain** 75%
Iowa (7) **Obama** 85%
Kansas (6) **McCain** 100%
Kentucky (8) **McCain** 95%
Louisiana (9) **McCain** 95%
Maine (4^) **Obama** 3-100%; 1-75%
Maryland (10) **Obama** 100%
Massachusetts (12) **Obama** 100%
Michigan (17) **Obama** 85%
Minnesota (10) **Obama** 80%
Mississippi (6) **McCain** 100%
Missouri (11) **McCain** 60%
Montana (3) **McCain** 70%
Nebraska (5^) **McCain** 4-100%; 1-80%
Nevada (5) **McCain** 70%
New Hampshire (4) **Obama** 75%
New Jersey (15) **Obama** 90%
New Mexico (5) **Obama** 80%
New York (31) **Obama** 100%
North Carolina (15) **McCain** 60%
North Dakota (3) **McCain** 65%
Ohio (20) **Obama** 55%
Oklahoma (7) **McCain** 100%
Oregon (7) **Obama** 95%
Pennsylvania (21) **Obama** 70%
Rhode Island (4) **Obama** 100%
South Carolina (8) **McCain** 95%
South Dakota (3) **McCain** 95%
Tennessee (11) **McCain** 100%
Texas (34) **McCain** 100%
Utah (5) **McCain** 100%
Vermont (3) **Obama** 100%
Virginia (13) **Obama** 65%
Washington (11) **Obama** 95%
West Virginia (5) **McCain** 90%
Wisconsin (10) **Obama** 85%
Wyoming (3) **McCain** 100%
^-Denotes that the state awards their votes proportionally; therefore the confidence margin is broken up.

Electoral Projection: Obama-311 and McCain-227
Confidence margin for Obama victory: 85%

States that may be closer then polling data: Georgia, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Iowa.

Key States that may require recounts: Ohio, Missouri, and North Carolina

Path to McCain victory:
1.) Winning the following states that I have him losing: Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, and Colorado (McCain would end with 274 E.V.)
2.) Winning the following states that I have him losing: Pennsylvania, Ohio, and one other state that he is projected to lose.
3.) Winning the following states that I have him losing: Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, and gain 1 electoral vote from Maine. (McCain would end with 270 E.V.)

SENATE Predictions:
Democrats gain 7 seats which includes: Virginia-100%, New Mexico-100%, Colorado-100, Alaska-90%, New Hampshire-85%, Oregon-80%, and North Carolina-60%
Republicans gain 0 seats
Other races that could be close: Minnesota and Georgia (both are republican seats right now.)
PROJECTED BREAK DOWN: Democrats-56, Republicans-42, and Independents-2 (Please note: Both independents currently caucus with the democrats.)

As a McCain supporter I am not giving predictions based upon what I want to see, but what I honestly foresee happening based upon many factors.

I welcome all appropriate and constructive comments. Anybody between now and 6 PM tomorrow night that responds with a correct prediction for the final electoral vote count will receive a small reward. (Example: Obama-311; McCain-227) Your name must be included when responding. If you would like more information on how I came to a conclusion or my methods employed please email me at: drch7087@yahoo.com

Thank you,
Daniel Hellmann