Thursday, November 27, 2008

Happy Thanksgiving!!

Hope you all have a wonderful day with family and friends. Be Thankful for all the Blessings God has given you and yours. I am So thankful for everything that God does and continues to do.


Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Vacation Pictures

Carving of Noah's Ark @ Creation Museum

Got to Hear Ken Ham speak and get a Picture with him

Shae, Mom H., Dan and I (Smoky Mountains)

Dan and I (Smoky Mountains)

Shae had a Birthday the week before so I baked her a Cake

Water Wheel and the Old Mill

Our Cabin

Sitting in the Big Chair

Dan sitting in the chair that makes you look little

A Bear we saw on our way up to the cabin

This bear was eating berries

We stopped to see our Friends Brad and Kaite and Lilyan Bird
I love this picture of Lilyan

Friday, November 21, 2008

We are having a ........

Well I had my ultrasound and the Dr. was very pleased with everything. But really that is not why you are reading this you want to know Boy or Girl right? Well Dr. said looks like a healthy baby Boy!!!! Here are some pictures of our baby.

Thursday, November 20, 2008


A while back we were sent this quilt block fro Dan's home church. I was supposed to decorate it how I wanted and put our names on it. It was for the pastor Bro. Shockley and his family. They are moving the end of Nov. So this is how I did ours. Not much but I was glad how it turned out.

Ultrasound today

Hello to all,
Just thought I would give a little update. I go for my ultrasound today and hopefully the little critter will cooperate and we will know if it will be a girl or boy. I don't have a preferance just as long as he or she is healthy. Dan keeps saying that this one is going to be a girl. He is saying that based on when I was expecting the last one he said a boy. Unfortunately we never had the chance to find out. But God has all things under control. So I will let you all know after our family has gotten the word.

For other news, we just got home from a vacation to the Smokies. It was a nice relaxing trip I will post pics and notes on it later.
Hope you all are doing good.

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Daniel's Post Election Thoughts

My mind has been inundated with many thoughts following last night's historic election that was capped with disappointment by Conservatives. In the exception of Indiana there was no big surprises for me and depending upon the outcome of Missouri and North Carolina I missed in my predictions for two states thus far. However, the purpose of this post is not to cause our minds to linger upon the results, but to ask what our response will be to the results. As Christians we have a choice as to how we will look back upon this election and what our verbal, emotional, and spiritual response will be in the days and weeks to come.

Sometimes in the aftermath of a discouraging election we forget some very important facts as Christians. God is not surprised, intimidated, overwhelmed, or lessened in power as a result of this election! Not only is He still the King of Kings, but His name never appeared on any ballot last night.

Does an Obama administration really change anything in our hearts? Does his presidency mean that our soul can no longer will be filled with happiness and praise? Is the source for our happiness found in a political party or a God that is mightier and stronger then any country's political system? The answer to this last question will determine our response to the previous questions. My firm belief is that as Christians we cannot afford to go into retreat mode based upon the results of any political election.

In times like this we hear a lot of responses and questions that enquire into the nature of God's Divine will. However, I really believe these responses miss a greater point. We do not have to ask ourselves whether or not an Obama administration is God's will, but we do have to accept the fact that God has allowed his presidency. This does not mean that we must sit back and allow what we believe to be wrong to become right. The question is how do we as Christians stand up for what is right? Rather then contending a presidency let us stand up against the policies which are presented that we find immoral or unBiblical.

God has been so merciful to us as a nation that it would be easy to start taking advantage of God and to assume that God has to bless us or help us flourish. The truth is that if God was to never show mercy to this nation again we would still be forever indebted to Him!

In the event that I have caused confusion or dismay in anything that I have written let me try and sum it up this way. While I am greatly disappointed in the outcome of last night's election and believe that this country is going down the wrong path I do not believe that it is God's will for our hearts to be filled with fear or dismay. II Timothy 1:7 reads, "For God hath not given us the spirit of fear; but of power, and of love, and of a sound mind." This post was not meant to be sermon but a chance for me to share my thoughts and concerns at this crucial time. As always I welcome any questions or thoughts you may have.

In His Service,
Daniel Hellmann

Monday, November 3, 2008

Daniel's General Election Predictions

For the first time since my wife started this blog I am going to post on here. Every general election I enjoy giving my predictions as to what will happen. I do not pretend to be a "political expert" nor would I ever claim to know for certain what the outcome will be as some pundits would. However, for the last year I have carefully researched the polls and trends of each state. In 2004 I achieved something that I will probably never match; in predicted all 50 states correctly.

My predictions are based upon the following information: Recent poll data, individual poll accuracy in past elections, state election trends, momentum trends, early voting, and even the weather outlook for Tuesday. I will state the candidate that I believe will win the given state followed by a confidence percentage. This is not the margin of victory, but merely states my prediction for how close a state will be. For example: I believe Obama will win Wisconsin with 85% confidence. This means that I think there is a 85% chance that Obama wins the state and DOES NOT mean that I think Obama will win 85% of the vote.

STATE(E.V.) -- Winning Candidate -- Confidence %
Alabama (9) **McCain** 100%
Alaska (3) **McCain** 100%
Arizona (10) **McCain** 75%
Arkansas (6) **McCain** 85%

California (55) **Obama** 95%
Colorado (9) **Obama** 65%
Connecticut (7) **Obama** 100%
Delaware (3) **Obama** 100%
Dis. of Col. (3) **Obama** 100%

Florida (27) **McCain** 55%
Georgia (15) **McCain** 75%

Hawaii (4) **Obama** 95%
Idaho (4) **McCain** 100%
Illinois (21) **Obama** 100%
Indiana (11) **McCain** 75%
Iowa (7) **Obama** 85%
Kansas (6) **McCain** 100%
Kentucky (8) **McCain** 95%
Louisiana (9) **McCain** 95%

Maine (4^) **Obama** 3-100%; 1-75%
Maryland (10) **Obama** 100%
Massachusetts (12) **Obama** 100%
Michigan (17) **Obama** 85%
Minnesota (10) **Obama** 80%

Mississippi (6) **McCain** 100%
Missouri (11) **McCain** 60%
Montana (3) **McCain** 70%
Nebraska (5^) **McCain** 4-100%; 1-80%
Nevada (5) **McCain** 70%
New Hampshire (4) **Obama** 75%
New Jersey (15) **Obama** 90%
New Mexico (5) **Obama** 80%
New York (31) **Obama** 100%

North Carolina (15) **McCain** 60%
North Dakota (3) **McCain** 65%

Ohio (20) **Obama** 55%
Oklahoma (7) **McCain** 100%
Oregon (7) **Obama** 95%
Pennsylvania (21) **Obama** 70%
Rhode Island (4) **Obama** 100%

South Carolina (8) **McCain** 95%
South Dakota (3) **McCain** 95%
Tennessee (11) **McCain** 100%
Texas (34) **McCain** 100%
Utah (5) **McCain** 100%

Vermont (3) **Obama** 100%
Virginia (13) **Obama** 65%
Washington (11) **Obama** 95%

West Virginia (5) **McCain** 90%
Wisconsin (10) **Obama** 85%
Wyoming (3) **McCain** 100%
^-Denotes that the state awards their votes proportionally; therefore the confidence margin is broken up.

Electoral Projection: Obama-311 and McCain-227
Confidence margin for Obama victory: 85%

States that may be closer then polling data: Georgia, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Iowa.

Key States that may require recounts: Ohio, Missouri, and North Carolina

Path to McCain victory:
1.) Winning the following states that I have him losing: Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, and Colorado (McCain would end with 274 E.V.)
2.) Winning the following states that I have him losing: Pennsylvania, Ohio, and one other state that he is projected to lose.
3.) Winning the following states that I have him losing: Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, and gain 1 electoral vote from Maine. (McCain would end with 270 E.V.)

SENATE Predictions:
Democrats gain 7 seats which includes: Virginia-100%, New Mexico-100%, Colorado-100, Alaska-90%, New Hampshire-85%, Oregon-80%, and North Carolina-60%
Republicans gain 0 seats
Other races that could be close: Minnesota and Georgia (both are republican seats right now.)
PROJECTED BREAK DOWN: Democrats-56, Republicans-42, and Independents-2 (Please note: Both independents currently caucus with the democrats.)

As a McCain supporter I am not giving predictions based upon what I want to see, but what I honestly foresee happening based upon many factors.

I welcome all appropriate and constructive comments. Anybody between now and 6 PM tomorrow night that responds with a correct prediction for the final electoral vote count will receive a small reward. (Example: Obama-311; McCain-227) Your name must be included when responding. If you would like more information on how I came to a conclusion or my methods employed please email me at:

Thank you,
Daniel Hellmann

10 Election Promises no matter who wins

Last night our service was focused on praying for our election. Dan gave a little sermonette before we prayed. These are the 10 things that he gave us. These things never change.

1. The Bible will still have all the answers.
2. Prayer will still work
3. The Holy Spirit will still move.
4. God will still inhabit the praises of His people.
5. There will still be Bible based truth.
6. There will still be singing of praise to God.
7. God will still pour out blessings upon His people.
8. There will still be room at the Cross.
9. Jesus will still love you.
10. Jesus will still save the lost.

Isn't it great to know who is really in control?!
II Chronicles 7:14
If my people, which are called by my name, shall humble themselves, and pray, and seek my face, and turn from their wicked ways; then will I hear from heaven, and will forgive their sin, and will heal their land.

Montana hunting pics

This time of the year is hunting season in MT so just thought I would put pics of the 1st day they went out. Glenn shot a Muley and Ken shot a Whitetail. Ken's is pretty big for a white tail but Glenn's Muley makes his look small. It took almost 10hours to get Glenn's from where he shot it to the truck. of course they had to get Ken's on their way down. He had shot his earlier in the day. They got home at 1:30am MST. Needless to say they were exhausted. I will put a pic of them laying in the middle of the road taking a break. They were so tired that they all laid down felt they couldn't go any farther. That was at 11:30pm and they still had over a mile to go. For some reason I don't have a pic of Ken's by himself. If I get one I will put it on here. Ken's was a 4 by 4.

Glenn's Buck 5 by 4

Glenn's and Ken's on the cart they use. Glenn's is in the front Ken's in the back.

Tuckered out after pulling them 5miles.